When did Globalization Actually Start?

West versus East: Early Globalization and the Great Divergence’

By Rafael Dobado-González (Complutense), Alfredo Garcia-Hiernaux (Complutense), and David E. Guerrero-Burbano (CUNEF)

Abstract: This paper extends our previous work on grain market integration across Europe and the Americas in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries (Dobado, García-Hiernaux and Guerrero, 2012). By using the same econometric methodology, we now present: 1) a search for statistical evidence in the East of an “Early Globalization” comparable to the one ongoing in the West by mid eighteenth century; 2) a study on the integration of grain markets in China and Japan and its functioning in comparison to Western countries; 3) a discussion of the relevance of our findings for the debate on the Great Divergence. Our main conclusions are: 1) substantial differences in the degree of integration and the functioning of grain markets are observed between East and West; 2) a certain degree of integration may be reached through different combinations of factors (agents, policies, etc.) and with dissimilar effects on long-run economic growth; 3) the absence of an “Early Globalization” in the East reveals the existence of some economic and institutional limitations in this part of the world and contributed to its “Great Divergence” with the West from at least the eighteenth century.

URL: http://econpapers.repec.org/paper/pramprapa/48773.htm

Circulated by NEP-HIS on: 2013-08-10

Guest Entry by Elizabeth Meagher (Bangor University)

NB: In January 2014, Chris Colvin and I started an experiment involving the use of Web 2.0 tools and third year undergraduate students. The aim was to incentivise active participation in academic exchange by reviewing recent additions to the broad literatures of business and economic history whilst following the same format as the NEP-HIS blog and limited to 1,000 words or less. The best entries are then published in the blog with minimal editing. This is the first of such entries.

We appreciate comments and inspiration from John Turner (Queen’s Belfast), Mar Rubio (Publica de Navarra) and Marcel Salles (ITESO). (BBL – Ed)

Summary

This paper examines the causes of early Globalization and the rise of the Industrial Revolution, analysing the divide between the East and West known as the ‘Great Divergence’. The literature suggests that globalization began steadily in the first half of the eighteenth century, taking off rapidly after the French Revolution and Napoleonic Wars and their aftermath. Once globalization ‘regained momentum’ it was supported by the rise in the Industrial Revolution across Europe and the US (Dobado-Gonzalez et al, 2013).

Source: The Economist "What was the Great Divergence"

Source: The Economist “What was the Great Divergence”

De Vries (2010) separates Globalization into two categories, ‘soft’ and ‘hard’. Flynn and Giraldez (2004) claim that ‘soft globalization’ began when the ‘old world’ merged with the US back in 1571. O’Rourke and Williamson (1999) defined ‘hard globalization’ as the integration of markets across a geographical location. An earlier study by Dobado and Guerrero (2009) claims that literature has often ignored earlier influences of globalisation on economic growth and focuses more on the results after the Industrial Revolution from 1700s onwards. It cannot be disregarded that integration between countries across Europe was evident between 1500 and 1800 before the first Industrial Revolution began. It is from these early stages of market and trade integration across Europe that industry and globalisation developed. The paper also suggests that in the first half of the eighteenth century, the rise in the West was due to the fact that China and the East had little to compete with, leaving the gates wide open for the West to expand its operations.

A panoramic view of London, c.1670 by Wenceslaus Hollar. Photograph: Heritage Image Partnership Ltd/Alamy Source:http://www.theguardian.com/cities/gallery/2014/apr/21/london-historic-skylines-in-pictures

A panoramic view of London, c.1670 by Wenceslaus Hollar. Photograph: Heritage Image Partnership Ltd/Alamy Source:http://www.theguardian.com/cities/gallery/2014/apr/21/london-historic-skylines-in-pictures

Additionally Dobado and colleagues focus on the impact of the dramatic expansion of foreign trade on economic growth within the West which has continued through to today. The paper also compares the differences and separation between the West and East during the first major economic growth in Europe between 1500 and 1800, known as the ‘First Great Divergence’. The authors suggest that the openness of the West resulted in dynamic trading across the Atlantic between the US with Britain and the Netherlands in particular (Dobado et al, 2013). The East however was not so far behind with the Opium Wars and the Silk Road increasing trade across Eastern countries moving towards the West which had never been done before. Nevertheless, before this point, the paper suggests that Eastern governments made one of the greatest economic mistakes in closing their economies, giving way to the ‘Great Divergence’ and ‘exceptionalism’ within the West (Dobado et al, 2013; Dobado and Guerrero, 2009). The restrictive trade policy practiced by the East is claimed to have prevented that part of the world from taking advantage of both direct and indirect benefits resulting from the expansion of trade during the Early Modern Era (Dobado et al, 2013). The paper recognises the absence of international grain market integration within the debate on the ‘Great Divergence’ and therefore seeks to examine the different markets within both the East and West.

St Paul's Cathedral viewed from Southwark, across the River Thames, in 1859. Photograph: William England/Getty Images Source: http://www.theguardian.com/cities/gallery/2014/apr/21/london-historic-skylines-in-pictures

St Paul’s Cathedral viewed from Southwark, across the River Thames, in 1859. Photograph: William England/Getty Images Source: http://www.theguardian.com/cities/gallery/2014/apr/21/london-historic-skylines-in-pictures

The paper found that despite geographical proximity and the easiness of transportation between China and Japan in the East, no statistical evidence of grain market integration is found between the two countries. This finding contrasts with the increasing expansion of trade in the West both before 1792 and after the 1840s (Dobado et al, 2013). As a result the East and West were dissimilar in terms of market integration both before and after the Industrial Revolution. Therefore this supports the concept of the ‘Great Divergence’ between the East and West and early Globalization presented direct and indirect benefits for the West which left the East to fall behind. In closing their economies in the Early Modern Era, governments within the East had committed what might be considered one of the biggest economic policy mistakes ever made, losing out on the greater benefits of early Globalization (Dobado et al, 2013).

Comments

One aspect of the research which could be criticised is that the samples used for comparing the different grain markets in both the East and West are unequal, with twelve studied within the West, and eleven in the East (Dobado et al, 2013). This could suggest the results may be biased towards the wheat market within the West. In addition to this, the study works with “[…] long yearly data series covering most of the eighteenth and the nineteenth centuries for most markets” (Dobado et al, 2013, p.6). This could also alter the results as using the same data is critical for a fair analysis. Another valuable point to consider is that the only countries which gained from ‘Early Globalization’ in Latin America were Peru and Chile who traded wheat.

It may also be beneficial to take into account cultural differences between the East and West at this time. The demand for wheat across Europe and the US would have been greater than the demand for rice from the East, causing further integration within the East.

Based on the points discussed above, it is apparent that there is a strong divide between the economic activity within both the East and West before the Industrial Revolution gained momentum. Additionally, it is evident that Globalization was present within Europe between 1500 and 1800 with the integration of markets within the West.

References

De Vries, J. (2010) ‘The Limits of Globalization in the Early Modern World’, The Economic History Review, Vol.63, pp 671-707.

Dobado-Gonzalez, R., Garcia-Hiernaux, A., and Guerrero-Burbano, D. (2013) ‘West verus East: Early Globalization and the Great Divergence’, accessed 6 March 2014.

Dobado, R. and Guerrero, D. (2009) ‘The Integration of Western Hemisphere Grain Markets in the Eighteenth Century: Early Progress and Decline of Globalization’, http://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ucm:wpaper:09-09 Accessed 9 March 2014.

Flynn, D.O. and Giraldez, A. (2004) ‘Path Dependence, Time Lags and the Birth of Globalisation: A Critique of O’Rourke and Williamson”, European Review of Economic History, Vol.8 No.1, pp 81-108

O’Rourke, K.H. and Williamson, J.G. (1999) Globalization and History, Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press.

QWERTY – Kay’s analysis of a non sub-optimal standard

QWERTY and the search for optimality

By: Neil M Kay (University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics)

Abstract: This paper shows how one of the developers of QWERTY continued to use the trade secret that underlay its development to seek further efficiency improvements after its introduction. It provides further evidence that this was the principle used to design QWERTY in the first place and adds further weight to arguments that QWERTY itself was a consequence of creative design and an integral part of a highly efficient system rather than an accident of history. This further serves to raise questions over QWERTY’s forced servitude as “paradigm case” of inferior standard in the path dependence literature. The paper also shows how complementarities in forms of intellectual property rights protection played integral roles in the development of QWERTY and the search for improvements on it, and also helped effectively conceal the source of the efficiency advantages that QWERTY helped deliver

URL: http://econpapers.repec.org/paper/strwpaper/1324.htm

Circulated by NEP-HIS on: 2013-11-22

Review by Anthony Gandy

Overview:

The paper reviewed here is another instalment in Neil Kay’s systematic exploration of the history of the QWERTY typewriter (see also Kay 2013a and 2013b). Through his work Kay questions the QWERTY typewriter as the primary example of how inferior design can become establish and create a path of dependency which will always be sub-optimal. The case Kay makes both in this paper and in earlier ones is that the design was in fact near-optimal for the state of knowledge at the time. In this paper he produces further knowledge that the designer made later efforts to refine the design using principles which show the designers’ advanced understanding of the concepts needed to produce an efficient design given the outcomes required (later definitions of efficiency were based on a different concepts and on different technology capabilities).

Christopher Latham Sholes (1819-1890)

Christopher Latham Sholes (1819-1890)

Kay studies the work of designer Christopher Latham Sholes and how he refined his own design of typewriter designs. In 1872 he and his associates created the familiar QWERTY layout which is so familiar in many Western and English language countries. The design was bought by Remington in 1873 in a deal arranged by Sholes’ business partner James Densmore who also retained a financial stake in the QWERTY keyboard after Remington bought it. Kay shows the deliberate design concepts which lay at the heart of the QWERTY keyboard which then refutes some earlier works (such as David 1985) which claimed the design process for QWERTY and the eventual lock-in created was generated by random events and that the design was effectively accidental and a sub-optimal standard. The path dependency concept based on network externalities (typist unwilling to face conversion to another standard even if it were more efficient) maybe fair, but the design was not at that time accidental or sub-optimal. Kay shows by inference that Sholes work was more deliberate than may have been understood, primarily because Sholes was protecting his trade secret which was his understanding of how to avoid frequent letter pairs from occurring and jamming the early typewriter technology. In this paper he explores two patents issued to Sholes after his death and finds them as evidence that Sholes continued to improve his basic understanding, but continued to protect his knowledge.

Remington No 7 – an improved version of the Sholes design

Remington No 7 – an improved version of the Sholes design. Source: http://machinesoflovinggrace.com/large/remstandard703.jpg

Like Kay’s earlier work this paper is highly detailed, looking at the available evidence, and analyzing the likely approaches used. It considers how, after Sholes sold his rights to the QWERTY typewriter, he continued to use his principles to develop an improved “perfect” typewriter, and how this was evidence that he knew more about the underlying principles than others have given credit to.
The real challenge at the time was typebars jamming. Using a keyboard layout of ABCDE, it was known that too often there would be pairs of letters used which would jam the typewriter. The goal was to reduce these pairs to reduce jamming risk.
Kay shows (2013a) that when typing the book Life of the Mississippi by Mark Twain, the Sholes Qwerty typewriter would have created 146 events where letters next to each other in the “typebasket” would have occurred and jammed. Others have argued (David 1985) that later designs of typewriter such, as the 1936 design by August Dvorak, were more efficient because they were faster. However, Kay shows that in the Life of the Mississippi test, the Dvorak design would create 2358 conflicting pairs. Kay points out that the comparison needs to be in era context. While later development was based on ten figure typing and efficiency focused on speed out output, Sholes’ era was one where two fingers of each hand was seen as optimal (and the reviewer here is certainly in this camp!!!) and the real challenge was one of the mechanical jamming or letter pairs.

This paper extends Kay’s research to the period after the Remington company purchased Sholes’ design and when he then went on to try to develop the “perfect” typewrite. Frankly, these are detailed and intricate discussions. Kay studies two patents issued after Sholes’ death to show he was working further with infrequency principles for his improved QV typewriter, the ultimate version of which would have reduced the incidents of jamming pairs by 97.7% compared to the QWERTY design. It is the evidence presented by the “jigsaw” of the two patents supporting the QV typewriter which is the core the Kay paper, combining them to show Sholes had an advanced knowledge of the processes required to reduce conflict between letters. Kay believes Sholes split the patents into two separate ones so as to protect his trade secret as to how to prevent conflict through infrequency principles, a concept which in itself could not be protected under copyright.

Brief discussion:

While the paper is maybe too detailed for most, and on occasion difficult to read without prior understanding of the issues, it serves as an interesting discussion paper on both how intellectual property was protect, even when the underlying principles could not be copyrighted and a lesson not to infer the efficacy of a technological solutions in the light of later technological capability. While the case for path dependency has been well made over the years and clearly make a great deal of sense, paths which have been founded on technology that is at its origin less than optimal are rare, maybe this is the reason the QWERTY keyboard has been so popular as an example as the thesis that its development was less than deliberate suggests it may have always been less than optimal. Kay’s forensic disputes this very. Kay generates evidence of a deliberate process by Sholes and his associates and while clearly the design could be refined (as Sholes tried) or replaced (as advocates of the Dvorak would argue for), it was nevertheless close to the optimal design at the time of development.

For those interested in what has been a very long running debate about QWERTY, optimality and lock-in, a more in depth review of Kay’s work and the prior debate has been produced by Jean-Philippe Vergne (2013) in the journal Research Policy which certainly seems to have dedicated its existence to discussion the QWERTY typewriter!!!

Additional References

Kay’s other QWERTY Papers

Kay, N. M. (2013a) “Rerun the tape of history and QWERTY always wins” Research Policy, 42:1175-85.

Kay, N. M. (2013b) “Lock in, path dependence, and the internationalization of QWERTY. Strathclyde Discussion Papers in Economics, no 13-10, http://www.strath.ac.uk/media/departments/economics/researchdiscussionpapers/2013/13-10FINAL.pdf (accessed 14 April 2014).

Jean-Philippe Vergne’s excellent review can be found in Research Policy:

Vergne, J. P. (2013) “QWERTY Is Dead, Long Live Path Dependence!” Research Policy, 42: 1191-1194. See also http://www.academia.edu/3495369/QWERTY_Is_Dead_Long_Live_Path_Dependence_

Constructing Contemporary (Mexican Banking) History

Bank Nationalisation, Privatisation, Crisis and Financial Rescue: Using Testimonials to Write Contemporary Mexican Banking History

By Enrique Cárdenas (Centro de Estudios Espinosa Yglesias)

Abstract – The Mexican banking system has experienced a large number of transformations during the last 30 years. Although important regulatory changes were introduced in the 1970s, all but a couple of the commercial banks were nationalized in 1982, consolidated into 18 institutions and these were re-privatized in 1992. Shortly after, a balance of payments crisis in 1995 (i.e. Tequila effect) led the government to mount a financial rescue of the banking system which, in turn, resulted in foreign capital controlling all but a couple of institutions. Each and every one of these events was highly disruptive for Mexico’s productive capacity and society as a whole as their consequences have had long lasting effects on politics, regulation and supervision of the financial sector as well as polarising society. Not surprisingly the contemporary narrative accompanying these events has been highly controversial and full of conflicting accounts, with competing versions of events resulting in a long list of misconceptions and “urban legends”.

URL (Podcast: 07 April 2014, 1 hr and 38 min)

Review by Bernardo Bátiz-Lazo

This entry departs from our usual as it fails to discuss a specific paper circulated by NEP-HIS. Instead I comment and reflect on a public lecture, that is, another common medium we use to communicate our research. The lecture build around two multi volume books and three DVD’s, and was delivered by Enrique Cárdenas (Executive Director of Centro de Estudios Espinosa Yglesias or CEEY) at Bangor Business School’s London campus on 2014-04-07. The actual publications are available, by the way, in hard copy from CEEY’s book store and in electronic version from Amazon.com.mx, as well as following the links to videos below and the link to the full podcast of the presentation above.

The chief aim of this project is to offer new evidence on the process of nationalisation (1982) and privatisation (1991-1992) of Mexican commercial banks. These two episodes of contemporary financial history had important rippling effect on Mexican society, politics and macroeconomic performance. They also had global consequences, first, as they mark the start of the so-called “International Debt Crisis” after Mexico informed of a payment moratorium of sovereign debt in August 1982. Secondly, the ratification of Robert Rubin as the 70th US Treasury Secretary (1995-1999) together with Ernesto Zedillo taking office as 54th President of Mexico (1994-2000), led to a political power vacuum and impasse in economic policy making between the Autumn of 1994 and early Winter of 1995. Known in the vernacular as the “Tequila Crisis”, in December 1994 Mexico devalued its currency and this led to instability in international foreign exchange markets and accelerated the exit of portfolio investments from a number of other countries (most notably Argentina and Brazil). By this point in time, Mexicans had fought hard during negotiations with the US and Canada to keep the banking system out of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). But this exception was lost in the aftermath of the “Tequila Crisis” while the subsequent bailout of the newly privatised banks represented a precedent missed by US and British regulators of what would happen, on a much bigger scale, during the 2007-9 financial debacle.

José López-Portillo y Pacheco (Last presidential address to the Nation, 1982; The president broke into tears after announcing the nationalisation of the banks).  Courtesy of Centro de Estudios Espinosa Yglesias

José López-Portillo y Pacheco (1920-2004) (Last presidential address to the Nation, 1982; The president brakes into tears). Courtesy of Centro de Estudios Espinosa Yglesias

Cárdenas’ analytical framework is based on Stephen Haber’s ideas of co-dependence between political and financial spheres. Cardenas’ evidence-based approach is certainly welcomed. But more so as he tackles head on with the issue of periodicity and method. Specifically whether and how to write accurate and meaningful economic history using of oral sources in the recent past. Revisiting and unpacking method and methodology are topics not far from current debates in business history, as has been portrayed in previous posting in the NEP-HIS blog (click here); the forthcoming panel on oral histories and World War I at theEuropean Association for Banking and Financial History (EABH) meeting in Rüschlikon, Switzerland; recent and forthcoming publications in refereed journal articles by Stephanie Decker and colleagues (see full references below); and JoAnne Yates’s contribution to the edited book by Bucheli and Wadhwani (2014) (as well as their panel on the latter publication during the recent World Business History Conference in Frankfurt). Indeed, one of Cárdenas’ and CEEY trustees’ chief motivations to engage in this research was to listen to what major players had to say while they were still alive.

Cárdenas was not limited to oral sources. He endeavoured to gather surviving but uncatalogued documents as well as the construction and reconstruction of statistical data series to complement historical analysis. Actors were of the highest standing in society including former Presidents, Mexican and foreign Treasury ministers, senior staff at multinational financial bodies, past and present senior bank executives, regulators, economic academic advisors, etc. To deal with historians mistrust of recollection and potential bias, Cárdenas sent in advance a questionnaire split in two sections: one aimed at enabling a 360 degree perspective on key moments; and the second, made out of questions tailored to the participant’s office and status during the event. All participants were informed of who else would take part of the discussions but none were shown others’ responses until all were collected and ready for publication. The risk of being “outed” thus resulted in only a handful of contradictions as participants preferred to declined answering “painful” topics than stretching the “truth”. Meetings were recorded, transcribed, and compared against statistical data. The latter would either strengthen the participant’s argument or was returned to him with further queries. Several iterations resulted in each participant embracing full ownership of individual texts and thus effectively becoming an author of his entry. It’s this process of iterations and guided discussion to which Cárdenas refers to as “testimonials”.

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As mentioned, the result of the CEEY’s sponsored research by Cárdenas was two multi book volumes and three documentary videos all of which, as illustrated by the links below to trailers and video documentaries below, have been edited but have no narrators. All views are expressed by the main actors “so that viewers can draw their own conclusions” said Cárdenas during his lecture. By publishing a large number inconclusive outputs based on “testimonials” the CEEY, and Cádernas as his Executive Director, aim to offer a new empirical source for others to include in their own analytical work and come to their own conclusions. Indeed, CEEY’s publications also include a number single author monographs and the commissioning of edited collections by academic authors who have used the testimonials as part of their evidentiary repertoire.

But does Cárdenas have any conclusions of his own? For one, he believes the effort to generate and document events through testimonials and new statistical material results in a much more balanced approach to assess the limited options President López-Portillo had at the end of his term in office. For starters in 1981 he was to nominate on his successor ahead of elections (“el dedazo”). The events that followed were to become the beginning of the end for the one party rule that characterised Mexico during most of the 20th century. At this point in time, Mexico had experienced four record years of strong economic growth. Never seen before and never to be seen since. Its oil production was doubling each year but its international debt was skyrocketing (particularly that of short-term maturity in 1981-2).

But as international oil prices begin to drop, Mexico followed an erratic behaviour (reducing and then raising its oil price) while oil revenues generated 35% of fiscal income and 75% of exports. Moreover, prices for other Mexican exports also fell while a practically fixed-rate parity with the US dollar meant a strongly overvalued peso. A devaluation was followed by a massive increase in salaries. And in the midst of political jockeying and an accelerating worsening of public finance, the President (a lawyer by training) was, according to Cárdenas, to receive conflicting and contradicting information (Cárdenas calls it “deceiving”) on the actual size of the public deficit (which was to double from 7% of GDP in 1981 to 14% of GDP in 1982) as well as the merits of defending the Mexican peso vs US dollar exchange rate (which he publicly claim to “defend like a dog [would defend his master]“.

2014-04-07 13.42.25

This conclusion sheds a significant amount of light on the decisions of late former President López-Portillo. As much as also help to better understand the end of some otherwise promising political careers. The narrative of actors bring fresh light to understand the break up between Mexican political and business elites, which eventually results in the end of the one party rule in the presidential election of 2000. It also helps to explain the break up of the rule of law during the next 15 to 20 years in Mexico as well as the loss of the moral authority of its government.

Cárdenas and CEEY have certainly produced a piece that will resist the test of time. They offer a unique effort in creating contemporary financial history while building from oral sources, privileged access to main actors and in this process, developing an interesting method to deal with concerns around potential bias. Given the passion that the topics of nationalisation and privatisation still generate amongst Mexicans and scholars of modern day Mexico, it is understandable that the analysis has emphasised idiosyncratic elements of these events. But somehow links with wider issues have been lost. For one, nationalisation or sequestration of assets (whether of local or foreign ownership) characterised the “short” 20th century. Nationalisation is one side of the coin. The other is public deficit reduction through the sale of government assets. Indeed, the privatisation of Mexican banks between 1991 and 1992 enabled to finance about half of the reduction of Mexican sovereign debt (though the massive rescue that followed practically annulled that reduction). Mexicans were not inmune to Thatcherism to the same extent that a reduction of the state in economic activity (whether real or not) was and is part and parcel of the “second” globalisation.

In summary and in Enrique Cárdenas own words: “Writing current (economic) history is not only possible, but highly desirable!”. We welcome his contributions to enhance empirical evidence around such important events as well as offering a way to systematically deal with oral sources.

Videos

The President’s Decision (1982) – Trailer (with English subtitles)

The President’s Decision (1982) – Full length (in Spanish)

From Nationalisation to Privatisation of Mexican Banks (1982-1991) – Trailer (with English subtitles)

Privatization of Mexican Banks (The President’s Decision Ex Post: Bank Privatization [Tequila effect - 1991-1995] – Trailer (with English subtitles)

References

Yates, J. (2014) “Understanding Historical Methods in Organizational Studies” in M. Bucheli and R. D. Wadhwani (eds.) Organizations in Time : History, Theory, Methods Oxford: Oxford University Press, pp. 265-283.

Decker, S. (forthcoming) “Solid Intentions: An Archival Ethnography of Corporate Architecture and Organizational Remembering”, Organization.

Decker (2013) “The Silence of the Archives: Postcolonialism and Business History”, Management and Organisational History 8(2): 155-173.

Rowlinson, M. Hassard, J. and Decker, S. (forthcoming) “Research Strategies for Organizational History: A Dialogue between Organization Theory and Historical Theory”, Academy of Management Review.

Note: with special thanks for helpful comments to Sergio Negrete (ITESO) and Gustavo del Angel (CIDE).

Accounting for Deception in the Industrial Revolution

Creative accounting in the British Industrial Revolution: Cotton manufacturers and the ‘Ten Hours’ Movement

By Steve Toms and Alice Shepherd (both at the University of Leeds Business School)

Abstract

The paper examines an early case of creative accounting, and how, during British industrialization, accounting was enlisted by the manufacturers’ interest to resist demands, led by the ‘Ten hours’ movement, for limiting the working day. In contrast to much of the prior literature, which argues that entrepreneurs made poor use of accounting techniques in the British industrial revolution, the paper shows that there was considerable sophistication in their application to specific purposes, including political lobbying and accounting for the accumulation of capital. To illustrate lobbying behaviour, the paper examines entrepreneurs’ use of accounting to resist the threat of regulation of working time in textile mills. It explains why accounting information became so important in the debate over factory legislation. In doing so, it shows that a significant element was the accounting evidence of one manufacturer in particular, Robert Hyde Greg, which had a strong impact on the outcome of the parliamentary process. The paper uses archival evidence to illustrate how accounting was used in Greg’s enterprise and the reality of its economic performance. The archival evidence of actual performance is then contrasted with the figures presented by Greg to the Factories Inquiry Commission, convened by the House of Commons in 1833-1834 to hear witnesses from the manufacturing interest. These sets of figures are compared and contrasted and discrepancies noted. Conclusions show that the discrepancies were substantial, motivated by Greg’s incentives to present a particular view of low profits, high fixed costs, and the threat of cheaper overseas competition. The figures appeared to lend some credibility to the apparent plight of manufacturers and to Nassau Senior’s flawed argument about all profit being earned in the ‘last hour’ of the working day. The consequence was a setback for the Ten Hours movement, leading to a further intensification of political struggles over working conditions in the 1840s.

URL: http://econpapers.repec.org/paper/pramprapa/51478.htm

Review by Masayoshi Noguchi

The paper by Toms and Shepherd was distributed by NEP-HIS on 2013-11-22. It makes a welcomed contribution to researching the role of accounting information within the British Industrial Revolution, as great debate still continues over the extent to which accounting technology was used for management decision making during that period.

The aim of Toms and Shepherd is to examine “the use of accounting by entrepreneurs to resist the threat of regulation of working time in textile mills in the early 1830s” (p. 2). This by analyzing the extent of “anti-regulation lobbying on working hours and child labour was influenced by accounting manipulation” (p. 2).

Archival evidence was sourced in the business records of the partnerships of Samuel H. Greg and Sons. As is well known, one distinctive feature of accounting system of partnerships until present day is profit-sharing amongst principals. Toms and Shepherd also examines in detail the level of “sophistication in recording capital appropriations and accumulations” (p. 4) among partners. This as the partnerships’ accounting system recognised implied interest charges of capital and used them to arrive at the balance carried forward. However, this criteria sharply contrasted with the absence of any other criteria for accounting for fixed assets (including depreciation). Fixed assets were treated as part of “[Greg’s] private estate and not assigned to the partnership” (p. 14). The practice at Greg and Sons thus provides a further case to support Pollard’s critical assessment of the limited use of accounting information for decision purposes (p.14).

Business records recording the actual performance of the business are then contrasted with evidence submitted by Robert Hyde Greg to the Factories Inquiry Commission of 1833. Toms and Shepherd then argue that the latter accounting evidence was distorted by the manufacturer’s interest to oppose the introduction of regulation stipulating the working day in textile factories. In particular, Greg manipulated accounting evidence submitted to the Factories Inquiry Commission by exaggerating “the importance of wages as an expense” (p. 22). This by assuming that most of the production costs in general, and wages in particular, were fixed costs and thus “reducing the working day would increase the burden of fixed charges” (p. 21) on profit.

Robert Hyde Greg (1795-1875)

Using the information recorded in Greg’s accounts of the partnership, Toms and Shepherd offer some factual and contra-factual exercises, including the calculation of “implied” rate of return on capital (pp.32-33). They then compare these results with the evidence provided by Greg to the Commission thus providing clear evidence of the manufacturer’s accounting manipulation. However, as the authors themselves admit, the concept of “return on capital is not referred to specifically in Greg’s evidence (only ratios of profit to output)” (p. 31), even though “the committee (sic) could easily draw conclusions from his tabulated appendices” (p. 31). Personally I would like to know more about the effect of writing-off the asset values exercised in 1832 (pp. 27, 30) on Greg’s submission of the accounting evidence to the commission in 1933.

With the skilled manipulation, the evidence submitted by Greg was successful to achieve a political effect with the final report of the Commission incorporated the entrepreneurs’ argument against the regulation on working hours. The authors conclude that accounting information could be used “not so much as an aid to [rational] management decisions, but as a [opportunistic] means of influencing others” (p. 36).

Slavery and the Modern World

The transatlantic slave trade and the evolution of political authority in West Africa

by: Warren C. Whatley (wwhatley@umich.edu)

Abstract:

I trace the impact of the trans-Atlantic slave trade on the evolution of political authority in West Africa. I present econometric evidence showing that the trans-Atlantic slave trade increased absolutism in pre-colonial West Africa by approximately 17% to 35%, while reducing democracy and liberalism. I argue that this slavery-induced absolutism also influenced the structure of African political institutions in the colonial era and beyond. I present aggregate evidence showing that British colonies that exported more slaves in the era of the slave trade were ruled more-indirectly by colonial administrations. I argue that indirect colonial rule relied on sub-national absolutisms to control populations and extract surplus, and in the process transformed absolutist political customs into rule of law. The post-colonial federal authority, like the colonial authority before it, lacked the administrative apparatus and political clout to integrate these local authorities, even when they wanted to. From this perspective, state-failure in West Africa may be rooted in a political and economic history that is unique to Africa in many respects, a history that dates at least as far back as the era of the transatlantic slave trade.

URL: EconPapers: Africahttp://econpapers.repec.org/paper/pramprapa/44932.htm

Review by Stephanie Decker

Last Sunday 12 Years a Slave (2013) won best picture at the Oscars ceremony. A timely reminder that slavery remains a subject of contemporary relevance. But researchers have also been concerned with the long-term impact of slavery on the modern world, with some, like Bill Cooke (2003), arguing that ante-bellum plantation slavery was one of the earliest instances of modern management. If you are wondering why people draw this parallel, have a look at this infographic: 

Spot the difference: slave owners and modern managers. Source: http://www.topmanagementdegrees.com/slave-management/

The careful management of slavery and the slave trade meant that slavery produced a large number of records, and in particular, statistically relevant material. But these figures are often sketchy and frequently problematic to assess Africa’s economic development. This remains a problem even for twentieth century quantitative sources as Morten Jerven has shown in his recent book Poor Numbers (2013).

Notwithstanding the inherent difficulties of using statistics for African history, Warren Whatley’s working paper (distributed in a special issue of Nep-His on 2013-11-07) contributes to a growing literature in economic history which seeks to show the effects of an historical event (loosely defined) on the institutional development of a region. The main assumption underlying this research is “path dependence”, and that these “initial conditions” determine subsequent institutional weaknesses which in turn affect economic development. Inspired by the influential work of Acemoglu, Johnson & Robinson (AJR) on the colonial origins of institutions (2001) and the reversal of fortunes (2002), a new line of research was developed by Nathan Nunn (2008, 2009) on the impact of the slave trade on the long-term determinants of economic development. Warren Whatley’s paper takes a slightly different approach to the literature, but this paper develops a similar argument.

Overall, when Africa’s poor long-run economic performance is attributed to its institutional weaknesses, there are, broadly speaking , three major explanations. AJR (2001) famously argued that the imposition of colonialism, which was a form of conquest and thus an illegitimate form of rule, created extractive institutions in non-settler colonies. However, Gareth Austin (2008) has also pointed out that it is not that easy to label all non-settler colony institutional frameworks as purely extractive, e.g. in West African peasant agriculture. An alternative explanation is of course that it was not so much colonial institutions that were extractive, but the trans-Atlantic slave trade. It is hard to argue with the essentially extractive nature of enslavement, but the question is whether it had a long-term effect.

Statistics on African development are often flawed even for twentieth century historical data

The third explanation is labour scarcity (Hopkins, 1973; Austin, 2008), which Whatley seems to find compelling, but links to the slave trade as an economic shock in a way that is hard to follow. Confusingly, he suggests that the slave trade would provide evidence for the labour scarcity hypothesis, but evades the question of whether the slave trade created labour scarcity (which he appears to be saying on p. 4) or whether it exacerbated it to the point of being a major economic shock (more likely in my view). As he also evades the question of why a territory chooses to export a crucial resource that is already scarce, Because if labour was already scarce but was exported nevertheless, one could argue that political institutions were already dysfunctional before the trans-Atlantic slave trade. Not only does the working paper claim to show that slave exports are a better explanation of cross-sectional variation than environmentally induced labour scarcity (p. 4), but that is also shows that the slave trade caused the spread  of absolutism (i.e. authoritarian political systems, p. 6). It is questionable whether cross-sectional data can be used as evidence of a process that took place over a period of time (more than a century, in this case).  This snap-shot of one point in time also does not appear suitable to prove causality, only correlations (p. 12). It is equally plausible that predatory states facilitated the slave trade, an argument that is easily supported by the geographic distribution of specific slave ports.

But causality becomes a really thorny issue with claims such as: “British colonies that exported more slaves were ruled more indirectly by colonial administrations (p. 6).” While in itself a nonsensical statement (slave trade and indirect rule in formal British colonies did not co-exist in time), it is based on the argument that slavery-induced institutions persisted throughout the colonial era and beyond. Nowhere in the paper is this demonstrated convincingly, and the evidence and analysis in figure 2 that supposedly support this claim are deeply anachronistic.

Figure 2 tries to show that the impact of the slave trade continued its influence throughout the colonial period, by linking slave exports to indirect rule (with post-colonial states as the unit of analysis – why not use colonial states?). The slave trade peaked in the eighteenth century, while indirect rule was only developed in the late nineteenth century and continued into the first half of the twentieth century. Post-colonial states (the unit of analysis) were created in the latter part of the twentieth century, and were often criticised for their total lack of connection to pre-colonial polities. These phenomena were not co-existing, and unless one assumes that an institutional framework that had its inception during the slave trade carried through colonialism into independent states, it really makes no sense connecting two sets of data separated by a century via a unit of analysis that did not even exist until much later still.  The argument of the paper is to prove that the slave trade had a long run historical legacy because of institutional inertia and path dependence, but figure 2 does not prove this, and instead just assumes this to be true without considering alternative explanations.

Labour scarcity due to environmental constraints is a far more straightforward explanation, and pretty much spans the entire time period under consideration. It is quite simply the most parsimonious argument, as it does not require any postulated mechanism that carries the institutional shock of the slave trade through colonialism into the post-colonial period. That seems to take the cause-effect relation seriously, whereas this “causal history” simply presents logical tautologies by equating institutions with historical legacies (p. 6), thus making the mechanism (institutions) the same as the effect (long-run historical legacies). And suddenly causation in history seems no longer that complicated.

In summary, I have two major issues with this research: firstly how “causal” history understands institutions (making it both the explanation and what is to be explained), and secondly how the evolution of institutions (diachronic) is supposedly tested by cross-sectional data (synchronic). Causal history in fact dispenses with history and substitutes it with path dependence. But this kind of institutional history has very little to say about why and how institutions change. This is an area in which history could make a real contribution, but not if institutions are reduced to static phenomena. Claims such as that “the political structure of many post-colonial nation-states in Africa is rooted in a political history that […] stretched […] back [to] the era of the transatlantic slave trade” are obviously appealing but remain difficult to prove.

References

Acemoglu, D., Johnson, S. & Robinson, J.A. (2001). “The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development: An Empirical Investigation.” The American Economic Review 91(5): 1369-1401.

Acemoglu, D., Johnson, S. & Robinson, J.A. (2002). “Reversal of Fortune: Geography and Institutions in the Making of the Modern World Income Distribution.” The Quarterly Journal of Economics 117(4): 1231-1294.

Austin, G. (2008). “The ‘reversal of fortune’ thesis and the compression of history: Perspectives from African and comparative economic history.” Journal of International Development 20: 996–1027.

Cooke, B. (2003). “The Denial of Slavery in Management Studies.” Journal of Management Studies 40(8): 1895-1918.

Hopkins, A.G. (1973). An Economic History of West Africa, London: Longman.

Jerven, M. (2013). Poor Numbers: How We Are Misled by African Development Statistics and What to Do about It, Cornell Studies in Political Economy, Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press.

Nunn, N. (2008). “The Long-Term Effects of the African Slave Trades.” The Quarterly Journal of Economics 123(1): 139-176.

Nunn, N., Wantchekon L. (forthcoming). “The Slave Trade and the Origins of Mistrust in Africa.” The American Economic Review.

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Brit Steve McQueen becomes first black director to win Best Picture for “12 Years a Slave”. Source: The Independent (2014-3-3 http://ow.ly/uaRZF)